The Tar Heel state - 8 days out

October 27th, 2024

Here is where North Carolina stands eight days out from Election Day. Less than a month ago, Hurricane Helene hit the Southeast of the U.S. with a devastating impact. Roughly $129 million in direct, individual-level assistance and roughly 1,500 staff members from the Federal Emergency Management Agency have been allocated in Western North Carolina to over 207,000 people. To read more about this, here is a press release from Governor Roy Cooper. Despite the robust amount of misinformation about the federal response, the Governor is optimistic about the amount of help that Federal and Local Response is being offered to the state. One of the many reasons for this misinformation campaign is the negative impact of the mishandling of previous disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina for former President George W. Bush and COVID-19 for current Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump. Notably, the response has been praised by both Republican and Democratic legislators and Governors across the affected states. Due to this, the most robust impact on the election will likely be the ability to open polling locations for the affected areas. Historically, there has been a reduction of turnout in the affected areas, either as a mechanism of more substantive problems, such as energy loss or home damage, to difficulties with polling locations. As of six days ago, Governor Roy Cooper stated, “There are approximately 5,000 customers without power down from more than one million customers just after the storm.” This 99.5% reduction of power loss is both incredibly impressive and likely to reduce the impact of the Hurricane on the election. Anecdotally, I have seen multiple pictures of massive early voting lines from the largest city in Western North Carolina, Asheville.

In terms of the election on November 5th, Donald Trump currently leading in the polls, 50.8% -49.2%. Outside of the state’s support for Barack Obama in the 2008 election, North Carolina has been won by the Republican nominee in every election since 1980. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state 49.93% - 48.59% for Biden. Given that the polling average does not allocate any space for third parties, by adding up to a vote share of 100% (50.8% + 49.2%), it is important to note that the Libertarian party (0.88%), the Green party (0.22%) and other parties (0.38%) received 1.38% of the vote in the 2020 election. The Libertarians are colloquially understood to pull vote share from the Republicans whereas the Green party does the same for the Democrats. This, of course, is a fallacy. It is unfair to assume the voting intention of any particular voter, regardless of party. As the Republican party has moved away from being the party of small government, the linkage between the Libertarians and the Republicans has necessarily eroded. Many Green Party voters are committed Green Party members, not secret Democrats, with political agendas differing from the Democratic Party. The wonder of a Democracy lies in the ability to make strategically disadvantageous choices, such as voting for a party that mechanistically has no path to electoral success, because they align with your political ideology. One person’s wasted vote is another’s daring imagination for a better world. If these numbers were to be included in the polling averages, Trump would still be polling above the crucial 50% mark and in the lead for the state. 

After a string of newsletters with competitive House and Senate races, we get a small break from the stress. North Carolina is one of the seventeen states that doesn’t have a Senatorial election in 2024. In the House of Representatives, North Carolina currently has a 7-7 Democratic-Republican split. Out of the 14 seats up for re-election, only one is meaningfully competitive, NC-1 and even that has incumbent Don Davis leading 51.2% - 44.8%. Five incumbents, two Republicans, and three Democrats, are retiring this cycle. The incumbents from NC-8, Republican Dan Bishop, and NC-14, Democrat Jeff Jackson, are running against each other for Attorney General with Jackson narrowly leading in the polls. All five seats open after incumbent retirement are being led by more than 20% in polls by the Republican candidate. After this cycle, polling indicates the previous even 7-7 split will jolt rightwards to a 10-4 Republican-led North Carolina House of Representatives delegation. This state-level difference is irrelevant in terms of the overall governance of the House of Representatives as state-level breakdowns are not relevant to the Congressional structure. North Carolina, in contrast to other swing states, is unique in that the House races and Gubernatorial races are largely non-competitive. It is not possible to talk about the November 5^th election in North Carolina without mentioning the various scandals of Republican Gubernatorial nominee, Mark Robinson, such as having advocated a complete ban on abortion after which it had revealed he and his wife chose to have an abortion or calling himself a “black NAZI” on porn forums. This led to a subsequent drop in support and attempted distancing from former endorser, Donald Trump. If you would like to read more about Robinson’s scandals, here is a longer-form article on the various scandals plaguing Robinson. Today’s recommendation, to help you forget about the most offensive scandal details, is the first full-length album from South African artist Berlioz, Open This Wall. This Nu-Jazzy house record is a perfect length, around 30 minutes, for a nice easy Sunday afternoon tea.